Putin on brink as Kremlin elites and army get ready to unleash revolution in Russia

Putin’s Hold on Power Faces Unprecedented Threats, Says Leading Dissident

Vladimir Putin's grip on power in Russia is less secure than it appears, with the potential for a Kremlin rebellion looming, according to a prominent dissident. Despite seemingly strengthening his political control after being re-elected unopposed for another six-year term in March, the Russian President is facing significant internal threats.

Ponomarev, a former Russian MP and vocal Putin critic, told the Express that the growing dissatisfaction among Kremlin elites and army veterans over the war in Ukraine poses a serious risk to Putin's regime, potentially igniting a full-blown revolution. 

Ponomarev highlighted that while Putin's high approval ratings and some military gains in Ukraine suggest stability, the reality is different. The March elections, widely seen as neither free nor fair, have undermined the legitimacy of Putin's rule.

Ponomarev pointed out that Russian elites, who have suffered under Western sanctions and the collapse of relations with the West, are increasingly unhappy. They are frustrated by Putin's failure to deliver on promises of securing a ceasefire and improving relations with the West and are not willing to wait indefinitely for results.

Young business elites, particularly those with significant exposure to the West, are among the most dissatisfied. Ponomarev believes easing Western sanctions on these businessmen could exacerbate tensions within the Kremlin and spur a revolt.

The threat extends beyond the elites to other segments of Russian society. Ponomarev identified the managerial class in large cities and suburbs, as well as disillusioned army veterans, as potential sources of unrest. These groups are unhappy with the current state of affairs and feel betrayed by a government they see as corrupt and incompetent.

The path to revolution, Ponomarev noted, is unpredictable and could be triggered by various events, such as Putin falling seriously ill. However, he emphasized that intra-elite conflict remains the most likely catalyst. Once such a conflict starts, he believes it would be impossible to control and would inevitably evolve into a full-fledged revolution.

Ponomarev, an executive member of the rebel parliament, the Congress of People's Deputies, underscored the importance of the rebel parliament in guiding the revolution, with support from Western governments. He warned that without proper guidance, the upheaval could lead to the rise of fascist forces or civil war.

"We need to be prepared and steer the revolution in the right direction," he said. "A significant part of the elites must support us, and this cannot happen without Western involvement. The elites need to know that their actions are backed by the consolidated West."