Syria—What to Expect After Assad | Opinion

 

The Middle East remains a region dominated by authoritarian rule, from Iran to Saudi Arabia, with even democratically-inclined nations like Israel becoming increasingly authoritarian. The Arab Spring, once a beacon of hope, has long since devolved into an "Arab winter."

Bashar al-Assad, the son of the notorious Syrian dictator Hafez al-Assad, fit seamlessly into this landscape of repression. For over two decades, Assad ruled Syria with brutal control, silencing political opposition. When the Arab Spring-inspired pro-democracy protests erupted in 2011, Assad responded with violent suppression, even resorting to chemical weapons against his own people. With the backing of Russia and Iran, he managed to cling to power, controlling most of Syria while anti-government forces, fragmented by geography and ideology, were pushed into isolated pockets. These included Turkish-backed groups in the north, Kurds in the northeast, the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, and some fighters near U.S. military bases in the southeast.

For a time, it appeared Assad would avoid the fate of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, whose regime collapsed under similar pressure. Despite Syria's faltering economy, severely impacted by U.S. sanctions, and rampant corruption, countries like the U.S., Israel, and the UAE began considering sanction relief if Assad distanced himself from Iran.

Then, last week, Assad's grip on power started to crumble. In an unexpected turn, the Islamist HTS, supported by nationalists and secularists, captured Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo. Assad's forces withdrew swiftly. The HTS continued its advance, taking Hama and Homs, releasing political prisoners, reassuring Christian communities, and restoring essential services to war-torn regions. Russia, distracted by its conflict in Ukraine, failed to intervene, while Iran began pulling out diplomatic personnel and senior military figures.

By this past weekend, the HTS had seized Damascus, prompting Assad and his family to flee to Moscow. As Syrian refugees returned home, rebel leaders negotiated with the Syrian prime minister for a transitional government.

The Biden administration welcomed Assad’s departure but continued its attacks on Islamic State positions in Syria. Israel also increased airstrikes on Assad’s former military infrastructure to prevent it from falling into rebel hands. While Assad was a ruthless dictator, many nations had viewed him as a bulwark against extremist groups like the Islamic State.

However, the U.S. should not treat the victorious HTS as synonymous with the Islamic State. While the HTS has roots in al-Qaeda and retains an ultra-conservative ideology, it has become more pragmatic through coalition-building and governance in Idlib.

The future of Syria post-Assad is uncertain, with a risk of further civil war, as factions supported by different foreign powers vie for control. One danger is that extremists might hijack the HTS, turning Syria into a Taliban-style state. Another concern is the rise of a strongman like Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who could exploit fears of chaos and extremism to justify authoritarian rule.

A balanced, democratic Syria, respecting ethnic and religious diversity, seems a distant hope in the region, where prosperous democracies are rare.

The U.S. should avoid taking a leading role in shaping Syria’s future. Instead, it should allow other nations to facilitate a framework where Syria’s opposition can determine its destiny. By lifting sanctions, closing the U.S. military base, and supporting resettlement and reconstruction, the U.S. can help sustain the fragile aspirations of the Syrian people. Despite the region's turbulent history, the Arab Spring may still have a chance to flower once more, albeit in a more imperfect form.