A new candidate is a start, but Democrats need a new strategy to beat Trump

President Biden's departure from the 2024 election has resolved one significant issue for the Democrats: the concern over having a nominee widely perceived as too old for the presidency. This change now allows the party to focus on their campaign message without this distraction. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, who has secured support from the majority of Democratic delegates, outlined her vision in a recent email: “I believe in a future that strengthens our democracy, protects reproductive freedom, and ensures every person has the opportunity to not just get by, but to get ahead.” These themes were also emphasized by Biden in his announcement, particularly his focus on democracy and reproductive rights, which have been central to the Democrats' attempts to distinguish themselves from Republicans.

Yet, the Democrats face a significant challenge: their messaging lacks impact. 

First, there are tensions within their core issues. The Democrats criticize former President Donald Trump for enabling a shift of abortion policy to state authority rather than maintaining a federal stance. They argue for judicial oversight, but this position often appears inconsistent. Although no political party is expected to exhibit perfect logical consistency, the Democrats’ position becomes problematic when they simultaneously advocate for actions that seem to undermine constitutional norms—such as attempts to remove Trump from the ballot or push for controversial prosecutions.

The Democrats might argue that their focus on “democracy” symbolizes a broader commitment to constitutional principles and norms. However, their actions sometimes contradict this narrative. For instance, their efforts to alter the Constitution’s provision for lifetime appointments of Supreme Court justices or bypass Congress on issues like guns, health care, and immigration undermine their image as staunch defenders of democratic values.

Moreover, the Democrats’ critiques of Republican changes to election laws have not gained much traction. For example, the requirement for voters to present photo identification, which is a key point of contention, actually enjoys widespread support among Americans.

A Washington Post poll from the spring revealed that more swing-state voters trusted Trump to handle threats to democracy better than Biden. Even if Harris were to improve her standing on this issue, democracy is not currently a top priority for many voters. Gallup’s latest survey shows that only 2 percent of voters identify democracy as the nation’s most pressing problem, and this figure has been declining.

Abortion, however, might offer a more promising avenue for Democratic campaigning. Polls consistently show strong public support for reproductive rights and greater confidence in Democrats than Republicans to handle this issue. The Democrats believe that abortion was a significant factor in their success during the 2022 midterms.

Yet, even with abortion as a central issue, the Democrats face challenges. In the 2022 elections, no pro-life incumbent lost their seat. Furthermore, Trump's statements on abortion suggest he has no intention of taking significant actions against it. To generate fear and urgency, Democrats have to imply that Trump would act differently in a second term, despite his current lack of interest in further anti-abortion measures. This requires exaggerating the impact of Trump's running mate's past statements and the positions of associated organizations like the Heritage Foundation.

Ultimately, while there are vulnerabilities in Trump's platform—such as his focus on further corporate tax cuts, his plan for substantial and indiscriminate tariff increases, and his threat to cut school funding linked to vaccine mandates—the Democrats must go beyond just replacing their candidate. As the primaries approach, a more effective strategy is essential. The Democrats need to refine their message and develop a compelling narrative that resonates with voters and addresses their primary concerns.