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Donald Trump's prospects for securing the presidency in the November 2024 election are reportedly diminishing, as indicated by a recent poll.
FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which debuted on July 8 and saw an update on July 16, reveals that Joe Biden has a 53 percent likelihood of winning, while Trump trails with a 46 percent chance.
The tracker further details that Biden is expected to win in 534 out of 1,000 simulations conducted by FiveThirtyEight, whereas Trump prevails in only 462. These simulations suggest Biden is on track for a three-point victory.
The forecast on FiveThirtyEight's website is derived from a blend of polling data and campaign fundamentals, including economic conditions, state partisanship, and incumbency.
A recent poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, involving 3,601 swing state voters, highlights that Trump's margins over Biden have shrunk since June in critical swing states like Florida and North Carolina.
In the 2020 election, Trump had outpaced Biden in both Florida and North Carolina. In June, a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll showed Trump leading Biden by six points in Florida. However, this lead has now narrowed to four points, with 45 percent of respondents supporting Trump versus 41 percent for Biden.
Another recent poll also places Trump’s lead in Florida at four points. A June survey by Fox News found Trump at 50 percent compared to Biden's 46 percent. Conversely, poll aggregator Race to the White House indicates Trump is, on average, 7.2 points ahead in Florida, with Trump at 49.1 percent and Biden at 41.9 percent. Meanwhile, the FiveThirtyEight poll gives Biden a 50 percent chance of winning Florida, with Trump at 45 percent.
In North Carolina, Trump's lead has also diminished. In June, he had a three-point advantage over Biden. Redfield & Wilton Strategies' latest poll now shows Trump’s lead reduced to two points, with 44 percent of respondents favoring Trump and 42 percent supporting Biden.
FiveThirtyEight's tracker mirrors this tight race in North Carolina, showing Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 46 percent.
FiveThirtyEight attributes the shift in their latest predictions to an influx of swing-state polls indicating Biden is closing in on Trump’s lead. Their analysis notes, "The average swing-state poll published since July 6 has Trump leading Biden by 1 point, compared to his 2.2-point lead in national polls today."
This recent polling data represents Trump’s weakest showing since May 20, according to FiveThirtyEight's model.
All aforementioned polls were conducted or initiated prior to the assassination attempt on Trump last Saturday. Subsequent polls also suggest that Trump’s support base has not expanded significantly post-incident.
A Morning Consult poll conducted on Monday, surveying 2,045 registered voters, shows Trump leading Biden by just one percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus two points.
This Morning Consult poll also indicates a slight tightening of Trump’s lead from their previous survey conducted between July 12 and 14, which had Trump ahead by two points, 44 percent to Biden’s 42 percent.
In the week leading up to the shooting, national polls had Trump narrowly leading in six key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
An ABC News/Ipsos/Washington Post poll released on Thursday found Biden and Trump tied among registered voters. However, the same poll revealed that 67 percent of respondents believe Biden should withdraw from the race, and 85 percent consider him too old to serve as president, an increase from 81 percent in April and 68 percent over a year ago.
Questions regarding Biden’s fitness for office have been persistent, especially following a debate performance in June where he appeared to struggle with his words and lose his train of thought.
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ReplyDeleteWhether or not one believes the guilty verdict for those 34 charges in Trumps most recent court battle, just the fact that he was found guilty of sexual abuse (rape as the judge in that case stated) and that a large segment of our citizens still are voting for Trump, believe his blatant lies without fact checking is a sad comment on the state of our democracy.
ReplyDeleteWe are not a democracy. We are a Constitutional Republic.
DeleteTrump is nothing more then a bully. He said it himself, " I don't care about you, I just want your vote"! What a narcissist,he is convinced himself that he is the only person who can do the job of being a dictator.
ReplyDeleteWhen you poll only Democrats your poll will be skewed towards Democrats, but even Democrats don’t believe this poll. Trump will be elected the 47 President and clean up the mess Biden/Harris made in the Us and restore respect around the world.
ReplyDeleteThat is as bunch of cow patties. Trump is going to lose because of Dobbs, Chevron, the unethical SCOTUS and Project 2025. Plus the fact that people with brains can no longer overlook the fact that he is and always has been a con man, grifter, predator, elitist, truly wretched excuse for a human being. I wouldn’t trust him in my house, with my children, or even my dog. He is an unrepentant bully and will burn this country to the ground to rule over its ashes.
DeleteI’ll take the supposed “mess” Biden and Harris made over the total disaster left by trump, who fulfilled none of his “promise's”, most of his obligations, stole gifts from the country, is a convicted felon, a rapist, a traitor and a wannabe dicktator! People who will still vote for him are just as bad as him! Oh how could I forget him committing nepotism willingly in office! He is such a loser ( hence the last election) it requires a whole lot of ink and paper to list all his crimes and I’ll just leave it at the aforementioned ones! Regarding respect around the world you must be referring to his relationships with the worlds dictators in N Korea, China and of course, russia. Around the civilized world he is regarded as a horse’s ass and it take you long to verify it. So it’s still a free country and you’re welcome to vote for whoever you please! Just don’t make it for the liar who lied 5 times about his heels to avoid the draft. I think you know who I mean.
ReplyDeleteI am so glad you are able to create the outstanding achievements of the Biden Administration. Those dumb fools who insist on Bidens resigning need your inspiration to bring him back.
ReplyDelete