Putin's Invasion Has Cost Him 1.7 Million Workers: Report

Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had profound economic repercussions for Russia, resulting in the loss of more than 2.2 percent of its workforce, equivalent to up to 1.7 million individuals. This stark figure highlights the long-term economic damage inflicted by the ongoing conflict.

Since the war began in February 2022, Russian forces have sustained substantial battlefield losses. Additionally, the exodus of Russians fleeing conscription has further strained the already dwindling workforce. Economists have warned that while Russia's economic growth has been bolstered by increased military spending, the growing labor shortage will likely hamper future growth. This shortage could also lead to higher wages, thereby driving up inflation.

According to an analysis by Novaya Gazeta Europe, an independent Russian news outlet, between 860,000 and 1.08 million Russian military personnel were deployed to Ukraine in the first two years of the invasion. This figure includes both professional soldiers and those conscripted following Putin's partial mobilization announcement in September 2022.

Estimates of Russian casualties vary significantly. The Economist reported that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers have been seriously injured, and between 110,000 and 150,000 have been killed. Ukraine's estimates are somewhat different, with a total casualty figure, including both killed and injured, reaching 565,610 as of Saturday. Besides those killed or injured, many soldiers returning home are disabled and unable to resume their previous jobs, further exacerbating the labor shortage.

Novaya Gazeta noted that, with Putin showing little intention of ending the conflict, the number of people removed from the economy due to conscription or voluntary enlistment could rise by up to 60 percent in the first half of 2024. The extent of this impact largely depends on whether there will be another mobilization. If only professional soldiers are recruited moving forward, Russia could lose between 1.7 million and 1.9 million workers from 2022 to the end of 2024. However, a further mobilization could increase this figure to between 1.9 million and 2.1 million, or 2.8 percent of the workforce, posing significant economic risks.

Additionally, The Bell, another independent Russian news outlet, reported that the war has triggered the largest emigration of Russians in three decades. Their analysis of data from migration services and statistical agencies across nearly 70 countries revealed that since the war's onset, at least 650,000 Russians have left the country and have not returned. This is 150,000 more than their previous estimate at the end of 2022. Popular destinations for these emigrants include countries where Russian is widely spoken, such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Israel.

The Bell also noted that some countries did not respond to their requests for information, suggesting that the actual number of emigrants could be higher. This mass exodus presents serious political and economic challenges for the Kremlin, complicating an already dire situation.

In summary, the ongoing war in Ukraine has severely impacted Russia's workforce and economy. The loss of life, the injuries, and the significant emigration of Russians fleeing conscription or seeking better opportunities elsewhere all contribute to a bleak economic outlook for the country. The longer the conflict persists, the more profound these economic repercussions will be.