19 States Have Shifted to Donald Trump in Past Week—Nate Silver Model

In the past week, former President Donald Trump has gained ground in 19 states, according to a major election forecast.

Nate Silver's forecast reveals that the Republican presidential nominee has made small gains in six key swing states, along with Florida, Texas, and New Mexico. Trump has also improved his standing in several non-battleground states, including New Hampshire, California, Montana, Washington, Massachusetts, Indiana, Missouri, Maryland, Rhode Island, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.

Nebraska, unlike most states, does not follow a "winner-takes-all" approach for Electoral College votes. Two electoral votes go to the statewide popular vote winner, while one is awarded for each of the state's three congressional districts.

Trump’s largest boost came in Florida, where he gained 1.8 points in the last week, extending his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris by 5.2 points. In traditionally Democratic states like Maryland and California, Trump made smaller gains of 1.1 and 1.3 points, respectively. His vote share also increased by 1.6 points in Nebraska, a solidly Republican state.

In swing states, Trump has also seen marginal gains, except for Georgia, where he remains in the lead. His most significant improvement occurred in Michigan, where his vote share increased by 0.9 points. Harris leads by a slim margin of 1.1 points in Michigan, a state Biden flipped in 2020. In Wisconsin, Trump gained 0.8 points but still trails Harris by 1.2 points. In Pennsylvania and Nevada, where Harris leads, Trump’s gains were more modest—0.3 and 0.4 points, respectively.

Trump’s gains in states he leads, such as Arizona and North Carolina, were even smaller, at just 0.1 and 0.2 points. In Georgia, Harris narrowed the gap, bringing her vote share up by 0.3 points to 47.8%, with Trump at 48.5%.

This forecast comes as Trump experiences a positive week in polling. An ActiVote poll conducted from October 3-8 showed Trump leading nationally by 1.2 points. This represents a shift from the September poll, where Harris led by 5.4 points. In Michigan, a RealClearPolitics tracker shows Trump has gained a slight lead for the first time since July 29, while Quinnipiac University polling shows Trump is ahead by 4 points in Michigan and 2 points in Wisconsin.

However, Harris still holds the lead in Pennsylvania, with a 2-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, according to Quinnipiac’s latest numbers. While Trump has gained in key states, some polls, such as Cygnal’s and Morning Consult’s, show Harris is still gaining momentum, with Cygnal putting her ahead by 3.3 points and Morning Consult showing her leading by 6 points.

According to 538's poll tracker, Harris leads nationally by 2.4 points, while Nate Silver's forecast shows a 3-point lead. The race is tight in swing states, with both candidates having a path to victory. Harris needs 44 electoral votes from battleground states to secure a win, while Trump needs 51.