Kamala Harris No Longer Favorite in Nate Silver Model: 'Literally 50/50'

Pollster Nate Silver's latest forecast shows that Vice President Kamala Harris is no longer the clear favorite to win the upcoming November election. For the first time, Harris and Donald Trump are now nearly tied in terms of their chances of victory, with Harris at 50.1% and Trump at 49.7%.

This shift comes after a 6-point decline in Harris' odds since late September, with Trump gaining ground in 19 states. Silver notes that the race is now effectively a 50/50 toss-up, with recent polling from Midwestern battleground states showing extremely tight margins.

"We're seeing fewer Harris +3 poll results in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania compared to immediately after the debate," Silver explained. "The shift hasn't been huge, but even a small swing of half a point to a point can make a significant difference."

In key swing states like Wisconsin, polling has consistently shown razor-thin margins, often within the margin of error. Over the past two weeks, several polls have either shown Harris or Trump leading by 1 or 2 points or tied. Harris has only led in three recent Wisconsin polls, while Trump has led in seven. Harris' overall lead in the state has decreased from 1.6 points on October 1 to just 0.5 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. Silver's analysis also reflects this downward trend, with Harris now only 0.8 points ahead, down from 1.9 points at the start of the month.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are showing similar patterns. Harris' lead in Michigan has shrunk from 1.9 points to 0.7 points, while in Pennsylvania, her lead has inched up by just 0.1 points. In Nevada, Trump has chipped away at Harris' position, narrowing her lead from 1.8 points to between 0.7 and 0.8 points.

Trump holds narrow leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, but the races in these states remain tight. FiveThirtyEight shows a small increase in Trump’s lead in these states, while Silver’s forecast reflects similar trends.

Despite these developments, Harris remains ahead in national polling, with a lead of 2.4 points according to FiveThirtyEight and 2.8 points according to Silver. However, winning the popular vote alone won't be enough. Harris needs 44 Electoral College votes from swing states to secure victory, while Trump needs 51.

According to Silver, Harris is still on track to win the Electoral College, but her campaign should be concerned about tightening margins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He previously described Michigan as a safer bet, though recent polling shows the state briefly flipped in favor of Trump.

Silver has emphasized that this election is shaping up to be one of the closest he has ever seen, with his October 14 forecast showing Harris’ chances of winning the Electoral College down to 51.8%, a 6-point drop since late September.