US Election 'Nostradamus' Identifies Possible Kamala Harris Weak Spot

Historian Allan Lichtman, renowned for his election prediction system known as "The Keys to the White House," has suggested that the war in Ukraine could pose a potential vulnerability for the Democratic Party in the upcoming election, particularly under Vice President Kamala Harris' leadership. Lichtman's system is built around 13 predictive keys that assess the incumbent party's chances of retaining the White House. These keys are based on factors such as the economy, foreign policy, and domestic political stability. If six or more of these true/false keys are false, the model predicts the incumbent party will lose. If five or fewer are false, the party is predicted to win.

According to his model, Lichtman has officially forecasted a victory for Harris in the next election, though his system has faced criticism over the years. During a recent live-streamed interview on YouTube, Lichtman was asked which keys could potentially jeopardize the Democratic Party's chances. He pointed to the "foreign policy success" key as the most precarious.

"I awarded the foreign policy success key to the Biden administration," Lichtman explained, "because President Joe Biden orchestrated the Western coalition that successfully thwarted Putin's advances in Ukraine, protecting NATO allies and preserving U.S. national security." However, he acknowledged that wars are unpredictable, adding, "I suppose a catastrophe could still occur in Ukraine."

Lichtman elaborated in an email to Newsweek, clarifying that while the foreign policy key is relatively unstable due to the fluid nature of wars, he is confident it won't shift significantly. He noted that even if it did, it wouldn't change his overall prediction, as Harris currently holds a "two-key cushion" with only four keys against her.

Lichtman's 13 keys, as outlined in a 2012 Social Education journal article, are:

1. Party mandate: The incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious challenge to the incumbent party’s nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The sitting president is the incumbent party’s candidate.
4. No third party: No significant third-party or independent campaigns.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth equals or exceeds the average growth over the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The administration enacts significant policy changes.
8. No social unrest: There is no prolonged social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The administration is not involved in any major scandals.
10. No foreign or military failure: There are no significant foreign policy or military failures.
11. Major foreign or military success: The administration achieves a major foreign or military success.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The opposing party’s candidate lacks charisma or national hero status.