Donald Trump's Trade War Won't Hurt China | Opinion

 

While a trade war may sound like a bold strategy, the United States stands to lose more than it might gain. Contrary to the popular belief that China is economically vulnerable, it is actually well-equipped to endure a trade conflict. With its tightly regulated economy, extensive manufacturing power, and growing global influence, China has a structural resilience the U.S. can’t easily counter. The idea that China would falter under U.S. tariffs or economic pressure overlooks both the strength of China's economic system and the weaknesses within our own.

Over decades, China has established itself as the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, controlling vital sectors of global supply chains. Today, it produces around 30% of the world’s goods, an achievement backed by significant government subsidies, cost-effective production, and expansive infrastructure. These factors make China’s production capacity deeply integrated into global markets. Any disruption caused by U.S. tariffs would likely rebound onto American consumers and industries. From electronics to essential medical supplies, the U.S. depends heavily on Chinese imports, and attempting to cut that dependency quickly could lead to major shortages and price hikes domestically.

China’s centralized government structure enables it to manipulate its economy in ways the U.S. cannot. While American policies are subject to lengthy debates and approval processes, China’s leadership can act with precision, using tools like subsidies, currency adjustments, and targeted investments to counter economic challenges. In 2018, during trade disputes with the Trump administration, China mitigated U.S. tariff impacts by devaluing its currency, helping its exporters absorb the costs. This approach shielded China’s industries and maintained steady exports to the U.S., where demand remained high despite tariffs. To think that China will fold under renewed tariffs is to ignore how adeptly it has managed previous economic confrontations.

Further, a trade war risks alienating the allies the U.S. needs to pressure China for fairer trade practices. Protectionist policies and tariffs often push away crucial partners in Europe and Asia who might otherwise support a reform of the global trade system. Key allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea all have economic ties with China, and they may prioritize economic stability over siding with the U.S. in a trade dispute. Should this happen, China could strengthen its influence with these nations, securing economic alliances that will continue to support its growth.

For American consumers, the cost of a trade war would be immediate and tangible. Tariffs on Chinese goods directly translate into higher prices on everyday items like food, electronics, and household essentials. With inflation already impacting cost-of-living, additional tariffs would exacerbate financial pressure on American families. Businesses, too, would face higher costs for goods, forcing them to either pass on the expenses to consumers or cut jobs—neither of which would benefit the American public.

Additionally, China’s trade network extends far beyond the U.S. Through initiatives like the Belt and Road, China has fortified economic relationships across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, creating alternative markets to reduce dependency on the West. While the U.S. considers tariffs, China is solidifying its global influence, ensuring that even if its exports to the U.S. are restricted, other markets are ready to absorb its goods.

Given that U.S. industries are tightly connected to the global supply chains China leads, attempting to disengage from this network could harm American workers and prompt a domestic economic downturn, likely with more severe effects on the U.S. than on China. The notion that trade-surplus countries like China are innately vulnerable fails to consider the economic interdependence between the U.S. and China.

Ultimately, a trade war aimed at "defeating" China is a high-stakes gamble that may backfire. China is strategically prepared, well-positioned, and more resilient than many realize. Rather than isolating itself with tariffs, the U.S. could enhance economic strength by reducing government spending, cutting taxes, and removing excessive regulations that inhibit innovation and growth. Empowering American industries to compete on the global stage without restrictive tariffs will build lasting resilience and economic freedom—without sacrificing American businesses and consumers in the process.