President Joe Biden is spearheading a strong message from the world's richest democracies to Russian President Vladimir Putin, affirming that the West will not abandon Ukraine despite political uncertainties casting doubts on its commitment.
On Thursday, Biden is set to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Italy during the G7 summit, aiming to personally reinforce the pledge he made last week at Normandy's historic battlefields, where fascism began to crumble 80 years ago.
“We will not walk away, because if we do, Ukraine will be subjugated and it will not end there,” Biden declared, standing amidst the last surviving US D-Day veterans and over 9,000 graves of their fallen comrades. “Ukraine’s neighbors will be threatened. All of Europe will be threatened. … The autocrats of the world are watching closely to see what happens in Ukraine.”
However, Biden faces growing concerns in Europe that his presidency may just be a brief interlude between two Trump administrations. The former president’s term, which ended in 2021, disrupted the long-held belief that the United States is a stabilizing force in transatlantic affairs, always ensuring Europe’s security.
The “autocrats of the world” that Biden mentioned will be watching closely as Trump demonstrates his grip on the Republican Party by meeting GOP House members and senators on Capitol Hill. This show of authority comes two weeks after Trump became the first former president convicted of a crime, and less than five months before he seeks to return to the White House.
Biden's dedication to Ukraine, emotionally, politically, and diplomatically, is unquestionable and will shape his presidential legacy. Yet, doubts about the West's long-term commitment persist, fueled by shifting political currents on both sides of the Atlantic, which must concern Zelensky.
In the United States, Trump—who dismisses Ukraine, admires Putin, and cares little for Europe’s security, given his constant attacks on NATO—may be less than five months from regaining the presidency. In Europe, the significant gains by far-right parties in the recent European Parliament elections, particularly in France and Germany, could complicate future EU support for Ukraine. Putin's willingness to sacrifice thousands of Russian lives on the frontlines without political repercussions in a nation devoid of political opponents means the West could tire of the conflict before he does.
Nevertheless, a series of new initiatives from the US and its allies seems aimed at safeguarding Ukraine's Western lifeline and integrating Kyiv closer to Western economic and defense structures, should Biden and the wavering G7 leaders who initially supported Ukraine after the Russian invasion be replaced. However, no US president can fully bind their successor to a specific course of action.
The difficulties in passing the latest $60 billion US aid package for Kyiv through Congress highlight that America's divisive politics means future US support cannot be assured, even if Biden wins in November.
New Western plans to support Ukraine include:
Biden's return to Europe three days after leaving, reflecting his proactive leadership of the Western alliance since President George H.W. Bush. His frequent travel to Europe signals high priority, closely watched by both allies and adversaries.
The administration's unveiling of new sanctions on over 300 individuals and entities, targeting the parallel economy that helps Russia evade previous sanctions, with restrictions on foreign financial firms aiding Putin and Russian access to some US technology. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized these measures aim to raise the cost of Russia's war efforts.
An expected bilateral security pact between Biden and Zelensky, committing the US to train Ukraine’s armed forces for ten years and expand armaments production cooperation. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated this pact is to show long-term US support for Ukraine's security needs.
Optimism that the G7 summit will approve a $50 billion economic support package for Ukrainian infrastructure, financed by interest on frozen Russian assets, following months of negotiations.
A forthcoming NATO package to be revealed at the alliance summit in Washington this summer, which would institutionalize military support for Ukraine, though still short of Zelensky’s desired clear timetable for NATO entry.
Despite these significant demonstrations of support, Ukraine remains vulnerable. The Hudson Institute's latest battlefield assessment indicates incremental Russian gains on multiple fronts. Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure have severely damaged Kyiv's electricity production, raising concerns for Ukrainian civilians as winter approaches and Russia likely intensifies efforts to use the cold as a weapon.
Russian military resilience, despite early setbacks, has led some European officials to warn of a growing threat to Europe’s territorial integrity. The arrival of a convoy of Russian ships in Cuba further highlights rising US-Russia tensions with Cold War echoes.
Retired Gen. Wesley Clark cautioned against underestimating the Russian military, noting its persistence despite losses and the support from China, Iran, and other sanctions-busting efforts.
Ukraine's initial heroic resistance in 2022 inspired the world, but two years later, the fervor has faded. The conflict has turned into a bitter slog, with global political instability forcing leaders to prioritize domestic issues while trying to maintain support for Kyiv. The recent Hamas terror attacks on Israel have further diverted attention from Ukraine, which now symbolizes both World War I's trench warfare and modern drone warfare.
Zelensky’s frustration with the delayed US aid package, for which Biden apologized, and the limited Western support, highlights his struggles. Biden's attempts to avoid direct NATO confrontation with Russia have led to criticisms of providing Ukraine only enough to avoid losing, not to win. However, Biden has allowed limited use of US weapons in specific Ukrainian operations on Russian soil.
John Kirby, White House National Security Council spokesman, asserts Biden's determination to show Putin that the US will outlast Russian efforts, supporting Ukraine’s fight for freedom. Yet, the political tensions, high-stakes elections, and ideological divides in Western societies, along with Putin's ruthless persistence, mean that the West’s resolve will always be questioned as long as the war continues.
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