Vladimir Putin’s soft underbelly has been revealed

Vladimir Putin has frequently emphasized his red lines. In his 2021 state of the union address, he stated, "I hope no one will think of crossing the red line with Russia... And where this line will be, in every particular case, we will determine it ourselves."

One of these red lines was the use of American weapons to strike inside Russian territory. Dmitri Medvedev even threatened to arm the USA’s opponents in unspecified regions in response. However, Ukraine, with US backing, has crossed this line with impunity, gaining a significant tactical advantage.

The US has limited the areas Ukraine can target, but this has still substantially reduced Russia’s ground sanctuary by up to 16 percent. Ukraine can now strike military targets within the range of their US-provided HIMARS in Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts.

Despite President Biden's own red line protecting most Russian rear areas from HIMARS fire, initial reports suggest Ukraine has already hit Russian air defense systems in these oblasts. This, combined with other efforts—such as a drone strike that destroyed a fifth-generation SU-57 fighter jet at Akhtubinsk airfield, 366 miles from the front lines—has shifted the balance of power.

While the loss of a single fighter jet might seem minor, the SU-57 is one of Russia's most advanced developments since the Cold War's end. Losing such a high-tech asset is a significant blow to Russia’s combat capability and sends a clear message: their rear areas are no longer safe.

Russia now has to bolster air defenses in these oblasts to protect against future strikes, potentially diverting critical resources from the Ukrainian front lines. This comes as NATO countries enhance Ukraine's air capability, with the Dutch sending F-16s, France sending Mirage 2000 fighters, and Ukraine seeking Gripens from Sweden.

In a war where both sides face resource constraints, such strategic moves are crucial. The Kremlin cannot afford the further embarrassment of losing more high-end assets. They must either be defended, pulling resources from elsewhere, or moved further back, reducing their operational time over Ukraine and increasing fuel consumption. This plays to Ukraine's advantage.

This development adds to Putin's challenges following the stalled Kharkiv offensive. Despite significant Russian casualties and material costs, the White House national security spokesman announced on Friday that the offensive had stalled and was unlikely to advance further.

By allowing this "red line" to be breached without escalation or retaliation, Putin has revealed a vulnerability. While Ukraine aims to do more, their newfound ability to strike inside Russia offers a significant tactical advantage they are fully exploiting.