China-Russia relations and their implications on the world - opinion

White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby has warned that Russia and China are seeking to challenge the international order in ways that oppose Washington's interests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to China stands out as a significant event in international relations, carrying profound strategic implications given the stature of these two allies. This visit followed closely on the heels of Chinese President Xi Jinping's tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary.

It's no surprise that American observers view any rapprochement between China and Russia with suspicion, interpreting it as a step toward strengthening an anti-US alliance. This suspicion is well-founded; the Chinese and Russian leaders have met an astonishing 40 times over 15 years, dating back to 2009 when Xi was vice president.

Putin’s state visit marks the beginning of his fifth presidential term. The West seems to be fighting a losing battle against the formidable Russian and Chinese partnership. It confronts Russia in Ukraine, provoking military tensions to the point of nuclear posturing from Moscow as Western leaders threaten to deploy forces into Ukraine.

Tensions are so high that US President Joe Biden has warned of the real danger of Putin potentially using tactical nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, China faces continuous accusations of trade practices that undermine the global economic order and waves of Western sanctions, including the chip war, aimed at pressuring Chinese banks to cut trade ties with Moscow.

However, Beijing has no intention of abandoning its strong strategic partnership with Russia. After major Western sanctions hit Russia over its 2022 operation in Ukraine, China acted as an economic lifeline. These sanctions included freezing forex reserves, restricting Western tech access, and expelling Russia from SWIFT. Despite this, the Russian economy rebounded with a 3.6% growth in 2023, outpacing the US and Europe.

China refused to implement Western sanctions, instead becoming Russia's top importer of fossil fuels and exporter of technologies, chips, drones, and various other goods. Bilateral trade between the two nations topped $240 billion, up 25% year-on-year.

This trade not only supports both economies but also undermines the US dollar, as it is conducted in renminbi through opaque Chinese payment systems beyond Western tracking. Washington’s only response has been to impose more sanctions and accuse Beijing of aiding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine with military supplies.

Strategically, both nations are fortifying their economies against decoupling from the West, should a new multipolar order arise. China is skillfully exploiting the geostrategic vacuum left by America’s diminished presence on the world stage.

As President Biden enters his final year in office, he remains fixated on the Gaza conflict, unable to effectively coordinate or influence Netanyahu’s government. Meanwhile, Beijing is deftly rearranging its global strategy, laying the groundwork for a possible Trump return while rebuilding ties with Europe. European leaders, anxious about Trump’s potential return and the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict, fear Russia’s potential military victory and see no leverage over the Kremlin except through Chinese mediation.

Putin has praised the "no-limits" partnership between China and Russia, which aims to supply China with affordable and reliable energy, and deepen cooperation in high-tech and innovation sectors. China, while appearing more restrained rhetorically toward the West and framing its relationship with Russia as a partnership rather than an alliance, makes it clear that these ties uphold justice, law, and democracy. However, this calm rhetoric masks joint efforts to undermine Western sanctions through alternative financial systems and institutions like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS.

With their relationship at an unprecedented level, China and Russia are exploring options to leverage these blocs against sanctions, initiate Eurasian security talks, and pursue “dual resistance” to counter Washington’s “dual containment” strategy aimed at preventing a multipolar world order.

Reflecting the US's concern, White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby reiterated that Russia and China are challenging the international order in ways that contradict Washington's interests, promising close monitoring by the United States.