Kamala Harris' Lead Over Trump More Than Doubles With Black Voters

Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, according to a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. This shift is largely attributed to a significant increase in support from Black voters.

The poll, which surveyed 1,513 registered voters, indicates that Harris now leads Trump by 10 points, with 51 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 41 percent. This marks a notable turnaround from the previous poll conducted shortly after President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not seek re-election, in which Harris trailed Trump by 1 point.

The recent survey reveals that Harris has seen a dramatic surge in support from Black voters. Her approval among this demographic has more than doubled in just two weeks, with 73 percent of Black voters backing her, compared to 20 percent for Trump. This gives Harris a substantial 53-point advantage among Black voters, a significant increase from her previous 23-point lead in the July 23 poll.

Securing the support of Black voters is a critical goal for Harris, reflecting their pivotal role in Biden’s 2020 victory. According to Pew Research Center exit poll analysis, Biden won 92 percent of the Black vote in 2020.

If elected, Harris would make history as the second Black president in U.S. history and the first female and Asian president. The August poll also shows a decline in Trump’s support among Black voters, with his backing dropping by 10 points to levels closer to the 8 percent support he received from this group in the 2020 election.

Beyond her gains among Black voters, Harris is also improving her standing with other key demographics. She now leads by 9 points among independents, with 53 percent support compared to Trump’s 44 percent. This represents a significant 23-point shift from the previous poll, where Harris trailed by 14 points, 46 percent to 32 percent. Additionally, her support among white voters has increased from 40 percent to 46 percent.

Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, noted a shift in the political landscape, saying, "For months, comments on the presidential race typically included the phrase, ‘baked in.’ That’s no longer the case. Democrats have renewed enthusiasm and confidence with Harris at the top of the ticket, and the new matchup has ignited interest in the contest on both sides."

In response to Harris’ rising numbers, Trump’s communications director, Steven Cheung, defended the former president’s performance, suggesting that Trump has gained support compared to 2016 and 2020. "President Trump has actually gained support from 2016 and 2020, so Democrats have actually lost Black support," Cheung told Newsweek.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll was conducted from August 1-4, involving 1,513 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.