While Alaska has long been considered a Republican stronghold, recent polling indicates that Democrats may be making headway in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election. With Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy nearing the end of his term, the race is wide open for new contenders.
An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted on September 11-12, surveying 1,502 residents, suggests a potential shift in political dynamics. Among the possible candidates for governor, Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leads with 13% support, making her the frontrunner. Peltola, who has represented Alaska’s at-large congressional district since 2022, gained attention after winning a special election to replace the late GOP Representative Don Young and later securing a full term in Congress.
Former Republican Governor Sarah Palin, who served as governor from 2006 to 2009 before stepping down to run as Senator John McCain’s vice-presidential nominee, follows Peltola at 8%. Palin’s political comeback has been challenging, as she lost to Peltola in the 2022 special election for Alaska’s House seat.
Just behind Palin at 7% is Republican Nick Begich, who is currently locked in a competitive race with Peltola for her House seat. A partisan poll by the National Republican Congressional Committee, conducted between September 14-17 with 400 likely voters, showed Begich holding a narrow lead over Peltola, 44% to 40%. However, the margin of error of 4.9 percentage points means the race remains too close to call.
Tied for fourth place at 6% each are Republican Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom and former Democratic state Representative Les Gara. Dahlstrom, who previously received an endorsement from Donald Trump, withdrew from the race for Peltola’s House seat in late August.
Despite Alaska’s "Solid Republican" rating in presidential elections, the state has elected several Democratic governors in the past, including its first governor, Bill Egan. However, on the national stage, Alaska has consistently voted Republican since 1964, when President Lyndon B. Johnson was the last Democratic candidate to carry the state.
Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research on the 2024 presidential race shows a close contest. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, trails Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 5 points, with 42% to Trump’s 47%. Trump's support in Alaska, while still solid, has diminished since 2016, when he won the state by nearly 15 points against Hillary Clinton. In 2020, his margin narrowed to just 10 points against President Joe Biden.
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