Donald Trump Says He Won the Debate, Here's What Polls Say

Donald Trump continues to assert that he won last week's debate against Kamala Harris, despite polling suggesting otherwise. On Tuesday night, Trump took to Truth Social to declare, "Finally everyone is agreeing that I won the Debate with Kamala. It was like a delayed reaction but, as one Political Pundit said, 'Trump is still the G.O.A.T.'"

Trump's comments follow their debate in Philadelphia on September 10, the first of their election cycle debates. During the debate, Trump was frequently fact-checked for repeating debunked claims about the 2020 election and a bizarre conspiracy theory involving migrants in Ohio.

Both candidates claimed victory after the debate, but CNN's flash poll indicated that 63 percent of viewers believed Harris won, while 37 percent favored Trump. This sentiment has persisted in subsequent polls. An Angus Reid Global survey conducted between September 13 and 16 found that 56 percent of respondents who followed the debate felt Harris had the upper hand, compared to 25 percent who thought Trump won. Notably, 93 percent of Harris supporters felt she won, whereas only 61 percent of Trump supporters shared that view.

Similarly, a Data for Progress poll conducted between September 12 and 13 showed a majority of voters believed Harris won, with 56 percent supporting her over Trump's 37 percent.

Polling averages reflect Harris’s post-debate gains. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker shows Harris leading by 2.9 points, up from 2.6 points before the debate. Nate Silver's tracker also notes an increase in Harris’s lead from 2.2 points to 2.9 points since September 9.

Individual post-debate polls consistently show Harris ahead. For instance, the Angus Reid Global poll indicates Harris is 4 points ahead of Trump among 1,707 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. A Morning Consult poll between September 13 and 15 shows Harris leading by 6 points among 11,022 likely voters, while a Big Village poll between September 11 and 15 shows her leading by 7 points among 1,568 likely voters. Both leads exceed the margin of error.

Nate Silver suggests that Harris might also be benefiting from favorable news coverage following the debate. Despite her current lead, the race remains very close. A recent J.L. Partners poll shows Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump, within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.

Nevertheless, Harris continues to lead in FiveThirtyEight's and Nate Silver's polling averages. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast now predicts Harris would win 294 electoral votes to Trump’s 244, an increase from 279 to 259 votes on the day of the debate.