Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading former President Donald Trump in a recent poll conducted by Echelon Insights, a Republican-leaning organization co-founded by Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. The poll shows Harris with 52% of the vote compared to Trump’s 45%, giving her a 7-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup.
Breaking down the numbers, 45% of respondents stated they would “definitely” vote for Harris, compared to 37% for Trump. An additional 8% leaned towards or would "probably" vote for Trump, while 7% expressed the same sentiment for Harris. However, 3% of respondents were undecided.
When third-party candidates were included in the mix, Harris’ lead shrunk slightly to 5 points, with 49% supporting her and 44% backing Trump. The survey, conducted between September 23 and 25, sampled 1,005 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±3.7%. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns were contacted by *Newsweek* for comment.
This marks the first time Echelon Insights has shown Harris ahead of Trump, following an August poll where Trump had a narrow 1-point lead. Since President Joe Biden announced his decision not to seek reelection, Harris' standing in polls has generally been favorable, though close. The Outward Intelligence poll conducted around the same time gave Harris a 6-point lead nationally among 1,735 likely voters.
However, polling has fluctuated. A Quinnipiac University poll from the previous week showed Trump ahead by 1 point when third-party candidates were factored in, while the two were tied in a direct matchup. Other polls, such as a New York Times/Siena College survey, have also shown Trump leading by 1 point.
Despite these variations, Harris maintains a slight lead in most national polls. According to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, she leads Trump by 2.7 points, with 48.5% to his 45.8%. Nate Silver's model echoes this, giving Harris a 2.8-point lead, while RealClearPolitics puts her ahead by 2 points.
Though Harris appears poised to win the popular vote, her victory in the Electoral College remains uncertain. Silver’s model suggests that while Harris is a 3:1 favorite in the popular vote, the Electoral College is still too close to call. The model shows a 20% chance that Harris could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College, whereas the odds of Trump experiencing the same fate are only 0.3%.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast currently predicts Harris winning the Electoral College with 286 votes to Trump’s 252. However, much depends on the outcomes in seven swing states, which are extremely competitive. Harris is projected to win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump is leading in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona—each with margins as narrow as 1 to 3 points.
Given the tightness in these swing states, the 2024 presidential election could be one of the closest contests in over a century, according to FiveThirtyEight.
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