A recent poll conducted by CNN and SSRS reveals that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a substantial lead over former President Donald Trump in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, a key battleground that awards one electoral vote. Harris is currently leading Trump by 11 percentage points, securing 53 percent of likely voters compared to Trump's 42 percent. This is her strongest showing in the district since entering the presidential race, with previous polls indicating a smaller lead ranging from 5 to 8 percent.
Among Harris supporters, 61 percent state their vote is in favor of the vice president, while 38 percent say their choice is primarily motivated by opposition to Trump. This highlights the persistent anti-Trump sentiment that continues to play a major role in voter mobilization. On the other hand, Trump's support base appears more loyal and policy-driven, with 74 percent of his voters backing him based on his policies and leadership, while only 26 percent are primarily voting against Harris.
The poll also shows that the majority of voters have made up their minds, with 87 percent firmly committed to their choice for the upcoming November election. However, 12 percent of respondents remain open to changing their vote, indicating there is still potential for shifts in voter sentiment.
Nebraska is typically a Republican stronghold in presidential elections, but the 2nd District has occasionally leaned Democratic, awarding its electoral vote to Barack Obama in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020. The district’s practice of awarding a single electoral vote based on the popular vote has made it a highly contested area for both parties.
Since entering the race, Harris and Democratic groups have invested over $5 million in the district, with an additional $6 million in ad spending planned through Election Day. In contrast, Trump’s campaign has spent just $95,000 on advertising in the district, confident of a wider victory in Nebraska overall.
Efforts by Republicans in the state to shift Nebraska to a winner-take-all system for Electoral College votes have not gained traction. Sixty percent of voters in the 2nd District support maintaining the current system, which divides electoral votes by district, while 40 percent back the proposed change.
For Trump to secure victory, he would need to win all Republican-leaning states, as well as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Harris, on the other hand, would need to win all Democratic-leaning states and key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with Nebraska’s 2nd District potentially playing a crucial role in determining the final outcome.
The CNN/SSRS survey was conducted from September 20 to 25, sampling 749 likely voters in Nebraska's 2nd District, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.
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