Nate Silver, renowned pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight, remains uncertain about the 2024 election outcome but currently sees Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight advantage over former President Donald Trump. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris holds a narrow lead, about 3 points nationally, with favorable trends in key swing states, particularly Pennsylvania, which could play a crucial role in determining Trump's path back to the White House.
Silver observed that Harris' national lead has increased since his last update, and her most likely path to winning the Electoral College involves securing Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Alternatively, she could focus on flipping North Carolina, Georgia, or even both. "The forecast remains in toss-up territory, but we're at the point where we'd rather have Harris's position," Silver commented.
While Harris maintains a slim advantage, her lead is often within the margin of error, keeping the race highly competitive. Silver also noted Trump has a history of outperforming polling predictions on Election Day. Given the deeply polarized nature of U.S. politics, Silver emphasized that any election outcome is possible, and tight races are increasingly common.
Recent trends show Harris gaining minimal momentum, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, and Nevada, while Trump continues to lead in his home state of Florida. If Harris can hold Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, she would accumulate 247 Electoral College votes, leaving Pennsylvania as the critical battleground. Should Trump secure Pennsylvania, he would need to win Minnesota, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia to reach victory.
Since the last update, Trump has made slight gains in North Carolina, Minnesota, and Texas. Winning Minnesota, a state he narrowly lost in 2016, would mark a significant triumph, especially considering Republicans haven’t carried the state in the past 12 elections. Real Clear Politics recently shifted Minnesota from “leans Harris” to a “toss-up.”
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, suggested that undecided voters, making up 5-10% of the electorate, may lean toward Trump in the final stretch, potentially tipping the race. Currently, projections from 270toWin show Harris with 226 electoral votes and Trump with 219, with crucial states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia still undecided. If Trump flips Minnesota, he would gain 229 electoral votes, bringing Harris down to 216.
With the race neck-and-neck, the final outcome may come down to voter enthusiasm and turnout, as both candidates cannot afford a passive electorate. In such a closely contested election, even a small group of voters could decide the outcome.
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