Bush Adviser's Warning About Trump's Tariff Policy

A former White House official argues that the foundation of Donald Trump's tariff policy "overlooks much of history," cautioning that the former president's tax proposals jeopardize America's access to international markets.

On the campaign trail, Trump has consistently promoted tariffs as a key component of his economic strategy, claiming that imposing significant taxes on imported goods will protect U.S. industries from foreign competition. Despite Trump's strong advocacy for this "America First" trade approach, it has drawn significant criticism from both sides of the political aisle.

In a column published in The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, Karl Rove criticized Trump's tariff policy, particularly his attempt to align himself with former President William McKinley, who served from 1897 to 1901, to justify his stance.

"He calls for a return to this 19th-century practice, while misrepresenting McKinley's role in it," Rove asserted. Trump has repeatedly referenced McKinley's economic strategies, telling a crowd in Michigan in late September that "in the 1890s, our country was probably the wealthiest it ever was because it was a system of tariffs."

Trump further stated in a Fox News interview that McKinley was "a big tariff guy," but Rove, who was an adviser to Trump's 2020 campaign, disagrees with this portrayal, labeling it an "incomplete and superficial" understanding of economic history.

Rove noted that following 1893, the U.S. experienced a prolonged depression lasting nearly four years, which only ended after McKinley won the presidency against William Jennings Bryan, who advocated for an inflationary silver currency. According to Rove, it was McKinley’s endorsement of the gold standard that restored business confidence—not tariffs—that ultimately revitalized the economy.

As a senior adviser and acting chief of staff during the George W. Bush administration, Rove also pointed out that while McKinley’s tariffs were "proportional to those of other countries," Trump’s approach has taken protectionist policies to an extreme.

He contrasted McKinley's 1890 Tariff Act, which raised average import duties from 38% to 49.5%, with Trump’s pledge to impose a 200% tariff on John Deere products if the agricultural equipment manufacturer moved some of its production to Mexico. 

"These represent fundamentally different trade strategies," Rove explained, noting that McKinley's tariff policy was based on an ideology of "reciprocity," which aimed to levy tariffs in proportion to those of other countries and negotiate for reductions whenever possible.

"What was true in the 1890s remains true today: America needs foreign markets," Rove concluded. "McKinley used tariff policy to facilitate trade. If elected, will Mr. Trump do the same?"