A recent Fox News poll reveals a notable shift in the presidential race, with Donald Trump now leading Kamala Harris in a 4-point swing. The poll, conducted from October 11 to 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, shows Trump ahead by 2 points, securing 50 percent of the vote compared to Harris' 48 percent. Just a month ago, Harris had been leading Trump by 2 points, indicating a significant change in voter sentiment.
Despite Trump's lead, his advantage remains within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Notably, Harris still leads by 6 points in seven key battleground states, according to Fox News data.
These latest figures represent some of Trump's strongest numbers in Fox News polling since becoming the Republican nominee. Back in August, the former president held only a 1-point lead over Harris. The shift in his favor is largely due to growing support among white voters, who now back Trump by 10 points—a significant increase from the 4-point lead he held last month. Additionally, Trump's support is rising among voters aged 65 and older (49 percent) and college-educated voters (48 percent).
On the other hand, Harris is seeing her lowest levels of support among some key demographic groups. Her support among Black voters has dropped to 67 percent, and she is losing ground with college graduates (49 percent), voters aged 65 and older (47 percent), and white college-educated voters (46 percent).
"The movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially important, especially if he’s gaining among college-educated voters," noted Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News polls alongside Republican Daron Shaw. However, Anderson emphasized that the race has been within the margin of error for months, and the ultimate outcome will likely depend on voter turnout rather than persuasion.
The poll also shows that voter enthusiasm remains high on both sides, with two-thirds of Trump and Harris supporters saying they are "extremely" motivated to vote. Interestingly, a larger portion of Trump supporters (80 percent) say they are voting for him, while 18 percent say they are voting against Harris. By contrast, two-thirds of Harris' supporters are voting for her, but one-third are casting their vote primarily against Trump.
Trump’s improving poll numbers aren’t limited to national surveys. Last week, RealClearPolitics' poll tracker showed that Michigan had flipped in favor of Trump for the first time since July, and Nevada and Pennsylvania also moved toward the Republican side. Pollster Nate Silver’s latest forecast reveals that Trump has gained ground in 19 states, narrowing the race to a near toss-up. As of Wednesday, Silver's model gave Harris a slim lead with 50.1 percent to Trump’s 49.7 percent, marking the first time the two candidates are virtually tied in the election forecast.
Silver observed that Harris’ chances of victory have dropped by about 6 percentage points since late September, with the race tightening in critical Midwestern battlegrounds. "It’s now literally 50/50," Silver wrote, highlighting how razor-thin the margins are just weeks before Election Day.
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