Donald Trump's Chances of Losing Florida, According to Odds, Polls

Former President Donald Trump appears poised to secure Florida’s 30 electoral votes, based on recent polling data and betting odds, just 13 days before Election Day.

Once a key swing state, Florida has shown a trend of shifting further to the right. Despite tightening polls earlier this month, Trump has consistently maintained a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. According to a new Emerson College poll released on Monday, the gap between the candidates is widening, further decreasing Democrats’ hopes of flipping the state.

Polling Data

Recent polling consistently indicates Trump leading Harris in Florida. The latest Emerson College survey, conducted from October 18 to 20 with 860 likely voters, shows Trump holding an 8-point advantage. The poll reports Trump at 54% support, compared to Harris’s 46%. These findings align with FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, which currently shows Trump leading Harris by 5.9 points (50.7% to 44.8%).

Over the past month, Harris has trailed Trump in Florida by margins ranging from 1 to 14 points, with no polls showing her in the lead. The Emerson poll suggests the Democratic Party's chances of winning the state are dwindling as early voting progresses.

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, commented on these findings, saying, “Trump's 13-point lead probably isn’t a fluke simply attributable to random chance,” noting that the former president has maintained a "considerable lead among Florida's voters" throughout 2024.

U.S. Senate Race in Florida

In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, the same Emerson poll shows Republican incumbent Rick Scott leading Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 6 points (53% to 47%). FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Scott consistently ahead by margins ranging from 2 to 9 points in all October polls.

To regain control of the Senate, Republicans need to hold all their current seats, including Florida, and flip two additional seats. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy aims to unseat Democrat Jon Tester, while in West Virginia, Republican Jim Justice is strongly favored to succeed the retiring Joe Manchin, who has become an independent.

Betting Markets

Betting markets reflect confidence in Trump’s prospects in Florida. The online betting platform Polymarket currently estimates Trump’s chances of winning the state at 94%. For the Senate race, Polymarket gives Scott a 90% chance of securing victory.