Experts Predict Trump Could Call Election Early. What Happens if He Loses?

Political insiders are gearing up for a possible scenario this November where former President Donald Trump may prematurely declare victory before all votes are counted. With Election Day increasingly resembling election week, analysts anticipate that votes will not be fully tallied by the evening of November 5, delaying final projections in critical battleground states—much like the 2020 election.

In 2020, Election Day fell on November 3, but major news outlets didn’t officially call the race until November 7. Trump, however, moved quickly to declare victory early on election night, despite ongoing vote counts in key states. He cited the quicker tallying of in-person votes—which often favor Republicans—versus the slower processing of mail ballots, which led to shifts in results as counting continued.

Shortly after midnight on November 3, 2020, Trump proclaimed himself the winner, while results in swing states were still pending. This move drew sharp criticism from within his own party. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie called it a “bad political decision,” and ex-Senator Rick Santorum expressed distress over Trump’s unfounded claims of fraud. Even then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell emphasized the difference between declaring victory and finishing the count.

Despite multiple lawsuits contesting results in swing states, Trump’s efforts to overturn the outcome in 2020 failed. He famously pressured Georgia’s secretary of state to “find 11,780 votes” and repeatedly urged supporters to “stop the steal,” rhetoric that critics argue led to the January 6 Capitol riot.

With the 2024 election looming, Vice President Kamala Harris stated that her campaign is prepared for a potential repeat of these tactics. She assured NBC News that Democrats have the resources and expertise to counteract any early declarations by Trump. Harris reminded voters of the seriousness of this election, noting Trump’s previous attempts to undermine a legitimate outcome and the subsequent attack on the Capitol.

Political analysts warn that history may repeat itself. Washburn University’s Bob Beatty believes Trump is likely to declare victory prematurely regardless of results, possibly fostering mistrust and emboldening local officials to refuse vote certification. Similarly, David Schultz of Hamline University predicts that if Trump does call an early win, it could set up a dynamic similar to 2020, where he falsely claimed that late-counted ballots were illegitimate.

However, legally speaking, a premature declaration holds no weight. Sylvia Albert from Common Cause emphasizes that voters—not candidates—determine the outcome, and that slow results mean votes are being carefully counted. She stresses the importance of respecting the will of the electorate, regardless of any early claims by candidates.

One notable difference from 2020 is Trump’s evolving stance on early voting. Previously, he falsely accused early voting of enabling widespread fraud, but now he is actively encouraging it. This change, combined with increased GOP early voting efforts, has led some experts to speculate that Trump may no longer benefit from the so-called “red mirage,” where Republicans appear ahead on election night only to lose ground as mail ballots are counted.

According to early data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab, nearly 25 million Americans have already cast their votes, including a significant number of Republicans. David Schultz suggests that if Trump finds himself behind on Election Day, he will still likely cry fraud. Should Harris secure an Electoral College victory, experts see little chance of Trump conceding peacefully. Instead, Bob Beatty predicts a barrage of legal challenges and attempts to pressure House Republicans to block certification of electoral votes.

Questions of a peaceful concession remain, particularly in the aftermath of the January 6 riot. Despite these concerns, Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt assured Newsweek that there would be a peaceful transfer of power in 2024, just as in 2020, and reiterated the need for “free and fair elections.”