How Kamala Harris Can Win Back Black Voters

A new survey from the Alliance for Black Equality reveals that a significant portion of Black voters remain undecided with less than 20 days until the 2024 election. According to the poll conducted from October 2 to 4, 10 percent of Black voters have yet to make a decision, and Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing her predecessors in support from this demographic. Only 73 percent of Black voters back Harris, compared to 88 percent for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 87 percent for Joe Biden in 2020.

One factor contributing to Harris’ lower support is the "gender-generation gap" among Black voters, particularly millennials and Gen Z. Around one in four millennial and Gen Z respondents report supporting Donald Trump, with Harris struggling especially among Black men in these age groups. Only 49 percent of Black Gen Z men support Harris, while 40 percent back Trump. This contrasts with the 90 percent of Black men who voted for Biden in 2020.

This is not the first time Harris has polled lower than Biden and Clinton among Black voters. In August, Newsweek’s analysis showed Harris averaging 76 percent support among Black voters, while Trump garnered 16 percent. Harry Enten’s research further highlighted that Trump’s support among Black men, especially younger ones, is the strongest for a Republican since 1960. For example, Harris holds a 54-point lead over Trump among Black men, down from Biden’s 69-point lead in 2020.

Among Black men aged 18-44, Harris’ lead is only 41 points, compared to Biden’s 53-point lead in 2020 and Clinton’s 63-point lead in 2016. A New York Times/Siena College poll also found that 78 percent of Black men plan to vote for Harris, with 15 percent supporting Trump.

In response to this, the Harris campaign recently unveiled the Opportunity Agenda for Black Men, aimed at offering fully forgivable loans for Black entrepreneurs and promoting job opportunities in high-demand industries. Despite these efforts, the Alliance for Black Equality’s polling suggests that Harris’ campaign should focus on highlighting the dangers of a Trump presidency, specifically his support for nationwide stop-and-frisk policies and his record on undermining civil rights. Messaging around these issues could increase support for Harris by as much as 15 points among younger Black men.

Christopher Towler, a political science professor at Sacramento State University, explained that low-propensity Black voters, who feel disconnected from politics, require a different strategy. Towler warns that Harris’ Opportunity Agenda might not resonate with these voters, who may not see how policy directly affects their lives.

Alvin Tillery, founder of the Alliance for Black Equality, commended Harris for her Opportunity Agenda but stressed that she needs to do more to engage Black men. He believes that highlighting the risks of a Trump presidency—particularly his plans to reinstate stop-and-frisk and weaken civil rights protections—would resonate most with Black swing voters, especially those who are economically vulnerable and have had negative experiences with law enforcement.

Tillery also pointed out that Harris has faced challenges as the first woman of color seeking the presidency, needing to balance messaging to appeal to white, college-educated swing voters while also connecting with Black men. He emphasized that Harris must move beyond race-neutral policies and tailor her message to win over Black male swing voters in the final days of the campaign.