Kamala Harris Gets Boost From Critical Voting Groups: New Poll

 

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll, released Sunday, shows Vice President Kamala Harris gaining traction with key voter demographics, particularly Hispanic and suburban women voters, as the election approaches its final week. The poll indicates that Harris holds a narrow lead among registered voters, with 49% support compared to 47% for former President Donald Trump. Among likely voters, her advantage increases to 51% against Trump’s 47%.

Harris’ gains in this poll can be attributed to her improved support among Hispanic voters and an expanding lead among suburban women. In September, Harris’ lead over Trump among Hispanic likely voters was just 17 points—down from President Biden’s 30-point margin in 2020 exit polls. However, the latest poll shows Harris regaining a 30-point lead among Hispanic voters. Similarly, her advantage among suburban women increased from 9 points in September to 19 points in the new survey.

In contrast, Trump has bolstered his support among white men without college degrees, widening his lead in this demographic from 26 points in September to 41 points now. Additionally, he continues to maintain a substantial 41-point lead among rural voters.

The ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online between October 18 and 22, surveying approximately 2,800 individuals, including 2,392 registered voters and 1,913 likely voters. The poll's margin of error is 2 percentage points for the overall sample and registered voters, and 2.5 points for likely voters.

Despite Harris’ recent gains, she continues to face challenges with voter perceptions of the economy. Public sentiment remains pessimistic, even as inflation has reached its lowest point in three years, and the U.S. has added millions of jobs since the pandemic. Trump’s campaign has capitalized on these concerns, criticizing Harris’ handling of immigration, labeling her the "border czar," and blaming the Biden administration for perceived border security failures despite a decline in illegal crossings.

Trump also maintains a lead in key areas such as the economy, crime, and immigration, as well as in handling the ongoing Middle East conflict. These strengths align with issues prioritized by independent voters, who, according to the poll, rank the economy (94%), inflation (84%), crime (77%), and protecting democracy (76%) as their top concerns. Other issues like the Middle East conflict, abortion, and immigration were seen as lower priorities among independents.

The poll also revealed shifting dynamics among key voter groups. Trump’s support among male voters and white voters has seen a slight decline compared to 2020, while Harris appears to be outperforming Biden’s 2020 margins with Black voters, holding an 83-point lead compared to Biden’s 75-point advantage in exit polls.

Interestingly, the poll examined personal attributes, finding Harris ahead on qualities such as physical health, honesty, and mental sharpness. 

Polling results continue to fluctuate. A CNBC poll released last Thursday showed Trump leading Harris by two points (48% to 46%), while a conservative Rasmussen poll on Friday reported Harris holding a narrow one-point lead, marking a small but notable shift in her favor. However, with polling results mostly within the margin of error, the race remains highly competitive.