Kamala Harris' Poll Lead Trails Biden and Clinton's at Same Stage

 

With less than four weeks until Election Day and early voting already underway in some states, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself polling behind where President Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton stood at the same point in their respective 2020 and 2016 campaigns.

According to RealClearPolitics' average of polls, as of Friday, Harris holds a narrow 1.8-point lead over former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. In comparison, Biden led Trump by 10.3 points on October 11, 2020, and Clinton was ahead by six points on the same date in 2016. Despite her lead, Clinton ultimately lost the Electoral College to Trump, despite winning the popular vote by nearly three million votes.

Trump's surprising victory in 2016 defied the expectations of pollsters, many of whom had consistently shown Clinton leading throughout the campaign. While Trump again lost the popular vote in 2020, he garnered more support than most polls had predicted. His campaign has argued that traditional polling methods often fail to capture his full base of support.

Following 2016, many pollsters adjusted their methodologies to better account for what some have termed the "Trump undercount." Cliff Young, president of Ipsos polling, noted in September that pollsters use techniques like "weighting" to adjust for underrepresented groups in surveys. However, such methods involve judgment calls and are constantly evolving.

This shift in methodology may explain Harris’ narrower lead compared to her Democratic predecessors. Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, pointed out that while weighting adjustments help, they are still subject to human interpretation and evolving standards. He cautioned that Harris’ smaller margin could reflect genuine concerns for her campaign, though it's difficult to say for sure before votes are cast.

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, echoed this sentiment, warning against overinterpreting these early polling trends. He emphasized that each election cycle differs in terms of candidates, methodologies, and the broader political climate, making comparisons challenging.

Since Harris entered the race in July, she has erased Trump’s polling lead, although the race remains tight. Many recent national surveys show Harris with a slim advantage, often within the margin of error, leaving the outcome uncertain. In key battleground states, Trump appears to be gaining ground, and if Harris struggles to secure states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—the so-called "blue wall"—her path to victory will narrow significantly.

Reeher pointed out that Harris is performing better in national polls than in battleground states, likely indicating stronger support in states where she is already favored to win. Panagopoulos added that the 2024 race is unfolding in an environment of extreme political polarization, with fewer undecided voters than in previous elections, leaving voter turnout as a key uncertainty. Ultimately, the outcome will depend on how votes are distributed in crucial battleground states.