The race for Michigan in the 2024 presidential election remains highly competitive, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck and neck in the polls as Election Day approaches. With less than three weeks to go, no clear frontrunner has emerged, and the outcome in this critical battleground state could have a significant impact on the overall election results.
Michigan, part of the "blue wall" of traditionally Democratic-leaning states, is once again in play for both parties. Trump, who narrowly won Michigan in 2016 but lost it in 2020, is hoping to reclaim the state with support from key voting blocs, including union workers. On the other hand, Harris is working to maintain Democratic dominance in Michigan but faces challenges, particularly due to criticism of the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza. Polls suggest that some voters, particularly those critical of Harris' stance on Israel, may turn to Green Party nominee Jill Stein as a protest vote. This could be a significant factor, as Michigan has the largest Arab American population in the country, comprising about 4 percent of the state's residents.
To bolster her standing, Harris has been focusing on mobilizing key Democratic constituencies, including Black voters. She made a recent stop in Detroit, where she appeared on the radio show hosted by Charlamagne tha God, using the platform to highlight her accomplishments and paint Trump as a threat to democracy. Both candidates are set to campaign heavily in Michigan in the final weeks, with Harris scheduled to visit Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Oakland County before hosting a rally in Detroit. Trump will hold his own rally in Detroit the same evening.
Recent polls show the race remains tight. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris holds a slight 0.7 percentage point lead over Trump in Michigan. A recent Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll showed the two candidates tied at 47 percent. Another poll by SoCal Strategies had Harris up by 1 point, while an internal Trump campaign poll found him leading by 1 point.
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast categorizes Michigan as a "toss-up," with RealClearPolling showing Trump leading by an average of 1 percentage point in statewide polling. Polling expert Nate Silver gives Harris a slight edge, with a 55.6 percent chance of winning Michigan and its 15 electoral votes, compared to Trump's 44.4 percent. Silver also ranks Michigan as the second most likely state to tip the election, just behind Pennsylvania.
With such close margins and high stakes, Michigan is set to be a critical battleground as both campaigns pour resources into securing its voters.a
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