What Florida Polls Show About Harris vs. Trump As Early Voting Begins

Early voting for the general election commenced in Florida on Monday, with polls indicating that Donald Trump holds a significant lead.

Recent polling data has consistently shown the former president ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in both September and October, with margins ranging from 1 percent to 7 percent. Notably, a recent poll conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, regarded as one of the most reliable polling organizations, revealed Trump's largest lead to date at 13 points.

Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, remarked that this substantial lead for Trump stands out as an anomaly compared to other state polls. He emphasized that Trump has maintained a "considerable lead among Florida's voters" throughout the year, suggesting that the 13-point margin is likely not just a random occurrence.

Another recent survey from the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab indicated a 10-point advantage for Trump, with 53 percent support compared to Harris's 43 percent. Other polls present slightly narrower leads for Trump, including a 6-point lead from Redfield & Wilson Strategies and a 4-point lead from Marist College.

While some polls have shown Harris making minor gains in Florida, none have indicated that she is leading Trump. Additionally, third-party candidates Jill Stein and Chase Oliver are also on the Florida ballot, but most recent polling focuses on the head-to-head matchup between Harris and Trump. Polls that include third-party candidates typically show them receiving negligible support, generally zero or up to 1 percentage point.

Once viewed as a swing state, Florida has become increasingly Republican in recent years. Trump won the state in 2020 by a margin of 3.4 points, improving upon his 2016 victory by 1.2 points.

Beyond the presidential race, voters in Florida will also consider six proposed amendments to the state constitution, including those addressing abortion rights, the legalization of recreational marijuana, and a proposal to shift school district board elections from a nonpartisan to a partisan format.

A survey from the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab, released on Monday, found that 66 percent of respondents support the marijuana amendment and 60 percent favor the abortion rights amendment, meeting the minimum approval threshold needed for passage. However, a poll from The New York Times/Siena College this month suggested that the abortion amendment may be at risk of not passing, as it has sparked intense political debate in the state. Florida implemented strict abortion laws last year, prohibiting the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy.