Mary Trump Predicts What Donald Trump Will Do on Election Night

Mary Trump, niece of former President Donald Trump and a longstanding critic, warned on Sunday that her uncle might attempt to preemptively declare victory in the 2024 presidential election if the outcome appears unfavorable. In a Substack blog post, she suggested that Donald Trump may declare himself the winner even if trends suggest otherwise, much like his approach in 2020. She anticipates that this maneuver would garner the backing of "almost 100 percent of elected Republicans."

Mary Trump’s concerns emerge as key state polls reveal surprising developments on the eve of Election Day. Notably, she referenced Iowa, where a new Selzer & Co. poll published by The Des Moines Register indicates Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points (47% to 44%). This shift is particularly significant since Iowa, a historically red state, has not voted blue since Barack Obama’s presidency. Earlier polling had given Trump an 18-point lead over Joe Biden in Iowa, yet Harris has rapidly closed the gap. Other recent polls similarly show a tight race in Iowa, though Harris holds only a slight edge.

She also mentioned North Carolina as another pivotal state, observing that it’s “officially a toss-up.” This state, which Democrats have won only once since 1980, now holds unpredictable potential in the 2024 race.

In response to the Selzer poll, Donald Trump dismissed its findings on Truth Social, arguing that no president has done more for Iowa’s farmers than he has, and labeling the poll as biased. Pollster Ann Selzer defended her methodology, noting it’s the same one that accurately reflected Trump’s support in Iowa during the 2016 and 2020 elections. Trump’s adviser, Jason Miller, and conservative commentator Charlie Kirk were similarly dismissive, with Kirk describing the poll as a “media-designed tactic to suppress turnout.”

Another poll from On Point and Red Eagle Politics, which leans conservative, still gives Trump a seven-point advantage in Iowa, albeit a slimmer lead than in 2020, when he won the state by nearly 9 percentage points.

Mary Trump interpreted her uncle’s repeated campaign stops in North Carolina—despite winning it in both 2016 and 2020—as a sign of "weakness and insecurity." Democratic state Representative Marcia Morey of North Carolina echoed her concerns, warning that Trump’s continued rhetoric could ultimately alienate voters.

Polling in North Carolina reflects a close race, with a Cooperative Election Study poll showing Trump with a narrow lead over Harris (50% to 48%). According to Democratic sources, the Blue Wall states appear solid, but battleground states in the South—including North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—are competitive, with North Carolina offering the strongest chance for Harris.

Polling analyst Nate Silver currently shows Harris slightly ahead of Trump nationally, with 48.5% support to Trump’s 47.8%. However, Silver’s model predicts Trump with a slight advantage in the Electoral College, estimating his chance of winning at 52.6% to Harris’s 47%.

Mary Trump’s concerns go beyond election night. She warned of potential political violence, suggesting that Trump and his allies might incite unrest to attempt another coup if the results go against him. Reflecting on the 2020 election, she noted that Trump has consistently claimed it was stolen—a view repeatedly dismissed by courts and independent election experts. She also highlighted Fox News’ possible role in fomenting uncertainty, which she claims aligns with Trump’s interests.

With around half of North Carolina's registered voters having already participated in early voting, Mary Trump stressed the need for a decisive victory to counter Trump’s divisive rhetoric. "Let’s win by such margins," she wrote, "that we finally repudiate the message Donald and his party have been pushing for eight years—and halt their coup in its tracks."