A recent survey reveals that most Americans do not support the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, despite former President Donald Trump’s emphasis on this policy during his campaign. The survey, conducted by Data for Progress—a progressive polling organization—questioned 1,195 likely voters between October 23 and 25, assessing opinions on nine different deportation scenarios.
The findings show that only two scenarios received over 50% support. Seventy percent of respondents supported deporting individuals who recently crossed the border illegally, while 67% favored deporting those who crossed without legal status and have a non-violent criminal record. Support for other scenarios was significantly lower. For example, only 31% backed deporting a person with a U.S. doctoral degree who overstayed their visa.
Trump has pledged to deport 15 to 20 million people as part of a mass deportation plan if elected. CNN reported that the actual undocumented immigrant population may be smaller than Trump’s claim, with Pew Research estimating around 10.5 million undocumented individuals in 2021. In the 2023 fiscal year, approximately 2.5 million "encounters" were recorded at the U.S. border.
Research from FWD.us, a group focused on immigration and criminal justice, suggests that Trump’s proposed deportation policies could disproportionately impact Latinos, potentially subjecting one in three to deportation, and possibly reintroducing family separation practices. Trump also aims to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian migrants, stating they would be sent back to Haiti.
The American Immigration Council (AIC) warns that mass deportation could impact one million undocumented business owners and entrepreneurs in the U.S. Stephen Miller, a former Trump adviser expected to return if Trump wins, indicated that Trump would again attempt to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), an Obama-era program protecting young immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children.
While there is some general support for the concept of mass deportation, Data for Progress’s survey reveals limited support for specific deportation measures. Only 19% of respondents supported deporting people who have lived in the U.S. for over 20 years and arrived as children, while 21% backed deporting individuals under TPS. Just 24% supported deporting individuals who meet the following criteria: those who have lived in the U.S. for more than ten years, own a business employing American workers, volunteer in their community with no criminal record, or have U.S.-born children.
The Trump campaign declined to provide specific comments on the survey but directed Newsweek to Data for Progress’s website, emphasizing its identity as a “progressive think tank.”
Nayna Gupta, policy director at the AIC, believes that Trump's deportation plan will likely target vulnerable groups, including those mentioned in the poll. According to Gupta, such policies often involve costly workplace raids and can lead to family separations, impacting children and communities. AIC estimates that deporting one million people annually would cost $88 billion, considering both enforcement expenses and the economic impact of losing undocumented labor and entrepreneurship.
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