How President Trump Should Navigate the Tricky Waters of Japan?

When Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016, Japan's foreign policy apparatus was completely unprepared for anything but a Hillary Clinton victory. The Japanese government was so uncertain about how to approach the incoming administration that they struggled to find a way to contact the president-elect, and the Obama administration was not inclined to offer much assistance. Amid this uncertainty, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, with his personal representative pacing the streets of New York City in search of a way to reach Trump, began to craft a strategy that would serve him well throughout his tenure—a strategy not unlike a boxer clinching to avoid being hit.

For years, Trump had made a point of criticizing Japan, China, and other nations for exploiting America in trade deals. Now, as President, his rhetoric was likely to become reality. Abe's first step was symbolic but strategic: he appeared at Trump Tower with a gift of a golf club. Trump reciprocated by calling Abe “Shinzo,” a personal touch that harkened back to the warm relationship between President Reagan and Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone. Abe then took Trump golfing during his visit to Japan, and the relationship between the two leaders remained cordial, even as Trump demanded that Japan shoulder a greater financial burden for the U.S. military presence on its soil.

Abe’s tragic assassination left Japan without his steady hand to guide its foreign policy, and his successor, Shigeru Ishiba, is finding it difficult to establish a similar connection with Trump. If Ishiba fails to forge this bond quickly, he may find himself facing Trump’s ire, possibly with tariffs and Japan’s trade relations taking center stage.

Ishiba does have some unique qualities that may catch Trump’s attention. Most notably, he is Japan’s first Evangelical Christian prime minister in 44 years. He is not just any Evangelical but the great-grandson of Paul Kanamori, a fiery early-20th-century evangelist who helped spread Christianity across Japan and the U.S. Ishiba often speaks at prayer breakfasts in Tokyo, sharing stories of his grandfather with humility, acknowledging that his own devotion has yet to reach the same level. This connection to faith may resonate with Trump, who has surrounded himself with religious leaders in recent years.

Ishiba, however, faces a precarious position. Despite surviving as prime minister in the recent election, his party suffered significant losses, and many believe his tenure could last only six months to a year. His survival in office may well depend on his ability to build a relationship with Trump, much like Abe did.

However, Ishiba’s efforts to connect with Trump have been rocky so far. He had hoped to visit Mar-a-Lago after the G-20 summit, but his request was denied, and he continues to seek an invitation. If Trump is serious about having a stable ally in Japan, he should make time to meet with Ishiba in Florida and publicly reaffirm the U.S. commitment to defending Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression. Ishiba is looking for concrete assurances that the U.S. will protect Japanese territory if China or North Korea makes a move.

To secure his position and become a trusted partner for the U.S., Ishiba will need to navigate Trump’s unpredictable style with the same finesse that Abe demonstrated. By doing so, he can position himself as a valuable ally who shares America’s strategic interests in the region, rather than risk becoming yet another target for Trump’s tariff threats, as seen with Canada and Mexico.