Trump Claims Ukraine War Has Killed 'A Million'—Here Are the Facts

 

Former President Donald Trump recently stated in an interview that he would have prevented the war in Ukraine, claiming that if he had won the 2020 election, "a million people" would be alive today. In the interview with Dr. Phil, Trump reiterated his belief that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia would not have occurred under his leadership. 

He went further, suggesting that his re-election could be a sign from a higher power, implying that his involvement might be destined to "save the world." Trump confidently declared that his relationships with "tough guys" like those in Russia would have deterred the invasion, preserving both lives and the architectural beauty of Ukrainian cities, which he described as now "demolished."

The claim that Trump’s hypothetical presidency could have saved "a million" lives is striking. While estimates of casualties in the conflict are substantial, ongoing research and data do not align with Trump’s figure. Accurately estimating military casualties on either side of the war is challenging, with varying reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources complicating efforts to reach a reliable total.

A 2023 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analyzed 4,609 reports of military and civilian losses on both sides, concluding that both Ukraine and Russia likely overestimate the other’s losses while Russia underreports its own. Nichita Gurcov, a regional specialist with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), indicated that ACLED has recorded 87,000 fatalities in non-civilian targeting events in Ukraine, which includes both military and civilian deaths. Gurcov added that military fatalities are likely comparable on both sides, but accurate figures are difficult to verify.

ACLED’s methodology for estimating combat losses involves coding data to specific locations and dates, assuming a baseline number of fatalities in cases where precise numbers are unavailable. The organization has noted that Russian claims of high fatality counts are often inflated and cannot be independently verified, leading ACLED to cap and record these claims conservatively.

Ukraine’s combat losses are also difficult to quantify precisely. In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that approximately 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died, although he did not disclose the number of wounded. A report from August 2023, citing unnamed U.S. officials, estimated 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed.

Russia’s losses, too, are debated. Joris Van Bladel, a senior associate fellow at the Egmont Institute, suggested that recent Ukrainian figures on Russian losses were exaggerated. He cited data from BBC News and independent Russian media outlets, which reported a more conservative estimate of 61,831 Russian military deaths. Meanwhile, NATO estimates from earlier in the year suggested that Russia had lost 350,000 troops, including both killed and wounded.

Civilian casualties have also been significant. The United Nations reported that an estimated 35,160 civilians have been killed or injured since the invasion began in February 2022, though it cautioned that the true figures are likely higher due to incomplete data from certain regions.

Trump’s assertion that "a million" people would be alive under his presidency is not supported by the available evidence. While the combined military and civilian losses on both sides are substantial, they do not reach the scale Trump suggested. Van Bladel noted that politicians like Trump might be repeating figures from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, which are known to be exaggerated.