Donald Trump Edges Past Kamala Harris in Major Forecast For First Time

Former President Donald Trump has taken a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania for the first time since July, according to FiveThirtyEight's polling averages. Pennsylvania, a critical swing state, is a key battleground for both campaigns as the 2024 presidential race nears its final stages.

Trump initially led President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania before Biden exited the race in July. Since then, Harris, now the Democratic presidential candidate, held a narrow lead until early Monday, when Trump edged ahead by 0.3 points. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump currently enjoys 47.9% support, while Harris follows closely with 47.5%.

When asked about Trump’s slight lead, campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek, "President Trump is outworking Kamala Harris, and voters understand that America can’t survive under her destructive policies—soaring inflation, a chaotic border, and rampant crime terrorizing communities."

The race remains tightly contested in other key swing states. Trump has small leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris maintains a slight advantage in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

It’s important to note that while polls gauge popular support, winning the popular vote doesn’t guarantee victory. A candidate must secure 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes to win the presidency. According to FiveThirtyEight's Electoral College simulations, Trump wins in 53 out of 100 scenarios, while Harris wins in 47 out of 100.

Given the razor-thin margins, the race remains fluid, and pollsters have noted that polls often carry a margin of error. Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s support, but pollsters now claim they’ve adjusted for this. Cliff Young, president of Ipsos polling, has previously noted that pollsters are using past voting history to address undercounts.

At the national level, Harris holds a slim lead. FiveThirtyEight shows her with a 1.8-point edge over Trump, with 48.2% support. Meanwhile, Nate Silver's blog, the Silver Bulletin, shows Harris with 48.9%, compared to Trump's 47.2%. RealClearPolling’s average gives Harris a narrower lead of 0.9 points.

However, betting markets tell a different story. RealClearPolitics' betting average currently gives Trump a 58.3% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 40.8%. Unlike traditional polls, betting odds react more quickly to news events, making them more volatile.