Donald Trump Now Favorite With Five Major Election Forecasters

With just over two weeks remaining in the 2024 election campaign, five major forecasting groups have identified Donald Trump as the favorite to win the presidency. Notable among these are Decision Desk HQ/The Hill and 538, which have, for the first time, shifted in favor of Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.

Pollster Nate Silver, founder of 538, who now runs the Silver Bulletin blog, has also placed Trump in the lead, alongside the polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and VoteHub. While Trump holds a marginal edge, both Decision Desk HQ and 538 warn that the race remains highly competitive, with no definitive leader in the seven pivotal swing states, including Pennsylvania, which is crucial for determining the final outcome.

Pennsylvania is especially significant, as it forms a vital part of both Trump and Harris' strategies to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes. Harris’ best path to victory involves winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all part of the so-called “blue wall.” For Trump, Pennsylvania is essential, combined with wins in Georgia and North Carolina, to claim victory.

Although Harris leads in the national popular vote averages across all five forecasters, there is a real possibility that she could win the popular vote and still lose the Electoral College. Trump’s campaign spokesperson, Steven Cheung, responded to the projections by emphasizing Trump’s energetic efforts on the campaign trail and criticizing Harris for policies he claims have led to inflation, border issues, and increased crime.

As of October 20, Decision Desk HQ/The Hill reported that Trump had a 52% chance of winning, bolstered by improved polling in Wisconsin and Michigan and an expanding lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Despite this, polling in all seven key swing states—Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—remains tight and within the margin of error.

On Friday, 538’s G. Elliot Morris echoed this sentiment, noting that while Trump is now the slight favorite, his 53% chance of victory is still nearly a toss-up, as small polling shifts could quickly return Harris to the lead. Nate Silver also pointed out that Trump had regained the advantage with a narrow 50.2% chance of winning.

VoteHub's projections show Trump leading in the Electoral College with 283 votes, holding slim margins over Harris in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. RealClearPolitics has also placed Trump ahead in all seven key battleground states, reinforcing his position as the front-runner. However, Harris still maintains a 0.9-point lead over Trump in national polling, indicating that this race could still swing either way in the final days.