Over $58 million was wagered on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election from Friday morning to Monday morning, according to Betfair, a UK-based online gambling company.
As Election Day approaches, the odds for former President Donald Trump have shifted from 8/15 to 4/5, reflecting a decrease in his estimated chances of winning from 65% to 57%. The days of Friday and Saturday marked the highest levels of betting activity on the 2024 election since the market's inception.
A significant change occurred Saturday night following the release of a new poll from the respected Des Moines Register, which showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump in Iowa. This state, traditionally a Republican stronghold, had not been competitive in the last two elections. The poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, indicated that Harris led Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters. Although Iowa supported Trump in the previous two elections, it had backed Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom remarked on the unusual nature of this trend, stating, "We haven't seen this sort of drift on a U.S. election winner favorite at this stage of the campaign."
Despite the dip in his odds, Trump remains the frontrunner, with Betfair giving Harris odds of 5/4, translating to a 43% chance of victory.
Rosbottom noted that this election cycle has been a "blockbuster" for betting markets, with a total of $218 million wagered on the outcome. He anticipates even higher activity in the final 48 hours leading up to the election.
While betting markets are increasingly viewed as predictors of election outcomes, their reliability can vary. Unlike traditional polls that survey voters directly, betting markets reflect the sentiments of individuals willing to stake money on an outcome. This method can offer a real-time gauge of public confidence but is also susceptible to external influences like recent polling results or significant events. Research indicates that betting markets have sometimes accurately forecasted winners, particularly when supported by substantial data. However, they are not infallible and can be impacted by emotional responses, misinformation, or the behaviors of non-representative participants.
According to the latest averages from polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Harris and Trump are in a virtual dead heat, with Harris leading by less than a point. This marks the closest polling result for both candidates since July.
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