Jim Messina, former campaign manager for Barack Obama, has expressed concern over early voting numbers, which he described as "scary" for Vice President Kamala Harris. In an MSNBC interview, Messina highlighted that early voting data from battleground states indicates significant gains for Republicans.
When asked about the primary challenges facing the Harris campaign, Messina noted, “The early vote numbers are a little scary.” He explained that early voting trends have prompted calls from concerned colleagues, comparing current numbers with those from the 2020 election. “Republicans didn’t approach early voting the same way last time,” Messina said. “In 2020, Trump discouraged early voting among his supporters. Now, Republicans have a clear edge in early vote counts, and the numbers will look different from 2020, which is a bit unsettling.”
This election cycle, the Republican Party has actively encouraged early voting, marking a notable shift from the previous election. Turnout among registered Republicans has surged, further complicating predictions. Michael Cullinane, a history professor at Dickinson State University, explained to *Newsweek*, “Early voting has expanded drastically since 2000, and we could see up to 50 percent of votes cast before Election Day in 2024. Any assumptions about early voters' choices are speculative at best.” He also suggested that early Republican voters could range from moderate, "never-Trump" Republicans to staunch Trump supporters, and predicted potential record-breaking turnout in cities like Philadelphia and Milwaukee.
Cullinane also warned that turnout among women voters could create “mirage” results that may shift post-Election Day. Democrats, however, remain optimistic about turnout from women and younger voters, two demographics the Harris campaign has relied on. According to Messina, women make up 55 percent of early voters, and young voters have shown historic early turnout in battleground states. *Newsweek* analysis reveals a notable gender divide: Harris leads among women, with 52 percent support, while Trump holds 53 percent support among men.
Despite abortion being a key issue for many women, Cullinane noted that suburban white women have polled favorably for Trump, hinting that 2020 may have been an anomaly in voting patterns.
With the election just hours away, polling remains tight. *FiveThirtyEight*’s averages place Harris less than a point ahead of Trump, though some polls show her gaining. One recent poll even shows Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa, a typically Republican state. Additionally, election analysis firm 338Canada’s model gives Harris a slight lead in Nevada, forecasting a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if she captures the state.
Cullinane emphasized that while early ballot counting in states like Georgia and North Carolina may provide clearer insights, much of the outcome remains speculative. “Both campaigns now need to focus on maximizing turnout,” he concluded.
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