Vice President Kamala Harris's prospects for winning Tuesday's election have notably improved in the final days of the campaign, according to bookmaker Polymarket.
As of Monday morning, Polymarket—a platform where users can place bets on the outcomes of global events—assigns Harris a 41.4 percent chance of victory, while Donald Trump remains the favorite at 58.5 percent. Just a few days earlier, on October 30, Harris's chances were recorded at 33 percent, whereas Trump’s odds have decreased by nearly 10 points from 67 percent during the same timeframe.
Polymarket functions similarly to a stock exchange, allowing users to buy and sell shares that represent potential outcomes of events, thereby affecting the odds based on the volume of money wagered. If a user purchases shares in Harris's victory at her current odds and holds them through the election, they would receive a dollar for roughly every 41 cents invested—provided she wins.
Concerns have arisen regarding the integrity of Trump's odds on Polymarket, particularly as reports surfaced of an individual operating multiple accounts to bet millions on his success. Trump's odds on this platform have consistently been higher than those predicted by other forecasters.
Harris’s rising prospects are buoyed by a recent unexpected poll indicating she leads Trump in Iowa, a state previously deemed unlikely for Democrats. A survey conducted by respected pollster J. Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom shows Harris ahead of Trump by 47 to 44 percent, a result that falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This poll surveyed 808 likely voters between October 28 and 31.
In contrast, a September poll had Trump leading Harris by 4 points (47 to 43 percent). Earlier in the year, he had an 18-point lead over then-presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Trump won Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 elections by margins close to 10 and 9 points, respectively.
While this Iowa poll is just a snapshot of statewide sentiment, it could signal significant momentum for Harris as the campaign concludes. Analysts suggest that a Harris win in Iowa could suggest strong performance in other Midwestern states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, bolstering her chances in the Electoral College, as noted by veteran pollster Nate Silver.
Selzer's findings indicate that older women and female independents are significantly shifting their support to Harris in Iowa. Previously backing Trump, independent voters now favor Harris 46 to 39 percent, with independent women supporting her 57 to 29 percent—a marked increase from her 5-point lead in September (40 to 35 percent).
An Emerson College poll released on the same day as the Selzer survey predicts a more traditional outcome, showing Trump with a 10-point lead over Harris in Iowa (53 to 43 percent). This poll was conducted on November 1 and 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Currently, Polymarket indicates a 19 percent chance of Harris winning Iowa, a rise from 5 percent the day before the Selzer poll was made public.
In terms of key swing states, Polymarket shows Harris as the frontrunner in Wisconsin (59 percent chance of winning versus Trump’s 42) and Michigan (61 percent to 40). However, Trump is favored in Arizona (77 percent to 25), Georgia (66 to 34), Nevada (63 to 37), North Carolina (66 to 35), and Pennsylvania (57 to 44).
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