Vice President Kamala Harris Projected to Win Minnesota, Securing 10 Electoral Votes
According to Fox News projections, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to win Minnesota in the upcoming election, adding 10 electoral votes to her campaign. Minnesota has consistently supported the Democratic candidate in presidential races since 1976, and it remains a vital piece of the 18-state "Blue Wall" — states that have mostly backed Democratic nominees since 1992. Harris’ running mate, Governor Tim Walz, hails from Minnesota, adding a home-state advantage. Leading up to the November 5 election, several polls, including FiveThirtyEight, showed Harris with a five-point lead as of October 28.
Minnesota's Presidential Choices in 2016 and 2020
While Minnesota has leaned Democratic since 1976, recent elections have hinted at a potential shift in this alignment. In 2016, Hillary Clinton narrowly won Minnesota over Donald Trump by 1.5%. With one of the nation's highest voter turnouts, nearly 75% of Minnesota's eligible voters participated that year. In 2020, President Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin, winning by 7.1% and flipping four counties—Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona—that Trump had previously carried. Biden’s success was largely driven by voters in Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester, and northeastern counties. The Minnesota Star Tribune endorsed Biden in 2020, citing his ability to “reunite and restart America,” though it chose to withhold endorsements in 2024 to focus on in-depth candidate analysis.
2024 Polling Averages in Minnesota
Minnesota has been categorized as a toss-up by RealClearPolitics, while FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate polling as of October 30 gave Harris a 5.9-point lead. A MinnPost-Embold Research poll from October 28 showed Harris ahead of Trump by a narrow 48% to 45%, down from a more significant lead in September. This October survey, conducted among 1,734 likely voters, reported a 2.4% margin of error. The poll indicated Trump holding a notable lead among independents, with 36% compared to Harris’ 27%.
Voters’ Concerns: Democracy in Minnesota
Protecting democracy has emerged as one of the biggest issues for Minnesotans. A Minnesota Public Radio News and APM Research Lab poll found that around two-thirds of likely voters feel democracy is threatened. The sentiment was strongest among Harris supporters (83%) compared to Trump’s base (56%). Early voting has been robust, with over 860,000 absentee ballots submitted by October 24. The state has implemented “pop-up” voting sites in various communities to facilitate early voting.
Campaign Visits in Minnesota
Governor Tim Walz has been active in Minnesota, participating in early voting and campaigning alongside his family. Trump, on the other hand, has increased his presence compared to 2020, attending major events and rallies with his running mate, Senator JD Vance. Trump’s campaign held a significant fundraiser in Minneapolis, marking a shift from his 2020 approach, where he limited his Minnesota appearances to a few rallies.
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