In Arizona's highly scrutinized Senate race, Republican candidate Kari Lake asserts that her AI-driven internal polling indicates she is leading in the state. Lake revealed that her campaign's polling combines traditional methods with AI analysis of social media and broader internet data, showing her ahead of Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego, despite many other polls suggesting otherwise.
"We're ahead of my opponent, and I feel confident in our polling," Lake stated during a recent campaign interview. Back in July, she posted on X (formerly Twitter) that her "hero" Donald Trump "needs backup in Washington, DC, and I'm going to be his backup."
"Our approach to polling is unique; we not only conduct traditional polling but also utilize AI to analyze social media and online trends," she added.
Lake, a former news anchor at Fox 10 in Phoenix for over two decades, previously ran for governor of Arizona in 2022, narrowly losing to Democrat Katie Hobbs. She has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that the 2022 election was "stolen," launching several unsuccessful lawsuits to contest the results.
A recent New York Times/Siena poll, conducted among 1,025 likely Arizona voters from October 25 to November 2, asked whether voters were leaning toward a candidate. The results indicated that 48 percent favored Gallego, 41 percent supported Lake, and 10 percent remained undecided.
However, averages from recent polls—like those from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics—suggest that Lake has been closing the gap, with Gallego holding a narrow lead. FiveThirtyEight reports Gallego ahead by 3.9 points (50.4 percent to 46.5 percent), while RealClearPolitics shows a 5-point lead for Gallego (50 percent to 45 percent). An AtlasIntel poll conducted on November 2 among 967 likely Arizona voters indicated that Lake had a slight advantage, leading Gallego 49.1 percent to 47.4 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
AtlasIntel claims that early in the 2020 election cycle, it provided some of the most accurate forecasts for the Democratic Primary races, including the best polls for New Hampshire, California, and Florida.
According to the ASH Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard Kennedy School, AI has the potential to transform modern political polling by providing real-time surveys and summaries of public opinion expressed online. A Pew Research Center study from 2019 highlighted a decline in telephone survey response rates, dropping to 6 percent in 2018 from 37 percent in 1997.
In response to decreasing survey participation, the ASH Center suggests that AI can facilitate instant surveys and summaries of public sentiment, analyze demographic trends, and offer insights comparable to those of human experts regarding new circumstances and policy issues.
However, there are considerable concerns among American voters regarding AI's role in the upcoming presidential campaign. A Pew survey found that only 5 percent of respondents believed AI would primarily serve beneficial purposes, while 39 percent anticipated it would be used mainly for harmful ends. Furthermore, 57 percent expressed worries about AI spreading misinformation about candidates and campaigns, with similar concerns reported across party lines among both Republicans and Democrats.
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