JD Vance's Chances of Being Replaced As Donald Trump's VP Pick

The likelihood of Donald Trump replacing his vice presidential pick, JD Vance, before the November election appears low, according to betting predictions. Polymarket, an online platform where users can wager on the probability of various world events, currently estimates only a 12 percent chance that Vance will be replaced as Trump's running mate.

Vance, who was officially announced as Trump's vice presidential candidate during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 17, has faced significant scrutiny since his selection. Critics have focused on his past comments regarding women, abortion, and childless individuals.

Harry Enten, CNN’s senior political data reporter, has highlighted Vance’s historically low approval ratings. With an average net favorable rating of -6, Vance’s standing is the worst for a vice presidential nominee coming out of a convention since 1980.

Despite this, Trump's campaign has consistently dismissed any speculation about replacing Vance, with campaign officials asserting that Trump is "thrilled" with his choice. 

In comparison, President Joe Biden, who recently ended his 2024 campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, did so prior to becoming the official Democratic nominee. According to Business Insider, the Republican National Committee has a rule permitting the replacement of the vice-presidential nominee in cases of "death, declination, or otherwise." Should a change be necessary, the GOP would reconvene its convention or allow a smaller committee of Republican National Committee members to make the decision.

There are no formal mechanisms for forcibly removing a vice-presidential candidate from the ticket, meaning Vance would have to step down voluntarily. Amy Dacey, former CEO of the Democratic National Committee, has noted that with the election approaching rapidly, it seems unlikely that a replacement would be made at this late stage. She emphasized that voting begins in September, making it critical for nominees to be on ballots well before November.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer speculated that Trump might consider replacing Vance in the final days before the deadline for the Ohio ballot. "The addition of JD Vance to this ticket is incredibly a bad choice," Schumer remarked on CBS's *Face the Nation*. "I think Trump is likely regretting his decision as Vance continues to make controversial and erratic statements. Trump has about 10 days before the Ohio ballot deadline to decide if he will keep Vance."

In response, Trump’s communications director Steven Cheung countered that Trump remains enthusiastic about Vance as his running mate. “President Trump is thrilled with his choice of Senator Vance as his running mate, and together they represent the best team to reclaim the White House,” Cheung stated. “Meanwhile, Democrats are in chaos following their attempts to force Biden out of the race. Kamala Harris is weak and failed, and no amount of criticism from figures like Chuck Schumer will change that.”

Historically, vice presidential replacements have occurred, though they are rare. In 1972, Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern selected Missouri Senator Thomas Eagleton as his vice-presidential candidate. Eagleton withdrew just 19 days later after disclosing his history of depression treatment, including electroshock therapy. He was replaced by Sargent Shriver. McGovern and Shriver ultimately lost to President Richard Nixon and Vice President Spiro Agnew in a decisive defeat.