Donald Trump's Migration Plan Will Drive Up Grocery Prices, Economist Warns

A Nobel Prize-winning economist has cautioned that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed mass deportations and strict border controls could lead to higher inflation, particularly in housing and grocery prices.

In a column published on Monday in The New York Times, economist Paul Krugman argued that Trump's policies could unintentionally exacerbate inflation, which is already a growing concern for many voters.

Krugman noted, "If you're upset about grocery prices now, just wait until Trump targets a large segment of the agricultural workforce." He explained that the president-elect’s plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could result in severe labor shortages in key sectors, such as agriculture, food processing, and construction. This, Krugman predicted, would drive up prices significantly.

He highlighted that immigrants make up approximately three-quarters of the agricultural labor force, with nearly half of them being undocumented. The food processing industry is also heavily reliant on immigrant workers, with an estimated 30 to 50 percent of meatpacking employees being undocumented.

Krugman warned that deporting these workers would compel industries to raise wages to attract labor, a cost likely to be passed on to consumers. Furthermore, he argued that Trump’s policies could damage the economy’s productive capacity at a time when employment is already near full capacity, further fueling inflation.

"Could we easily replace these workers with native-born laborers? No," Krugman added, noting that employment among native-born adults is at its highest level in decades.

Beyond food prices, Krugman suggested that Trump's immigration policies could worsen the already severe housing affordability crisis. He pointed out that undocumented immigrants make up more than 20 percent of the U.S. construction workforce. Krugman argued that mass deportations would severely hinder efforts to increase housing supply, which is essential to addressing the housing crisis.

Trump has made mass deportations and stricter border control a cornerstone of his administration. Earlier this week, he appointed Tom Homan, his former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), as his "border czar." Homan, known for his firm stance on deportations and his involvement in the controversial family separation policy during Trump’s first term, has vowed to lead the "biggest deportation force this country has ever seen."

Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition, emphasized that "The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin, giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver."